2015 NFL Week 4 – picks & analysis

New York Jets -1 -105

Just waiting for the next injury report. Revis and Decker were limited today as well as Branden Albert. The latter has the worst probability to be on the field as you most likely know. Without Sims and Albert, this OL neither can block nor pick up blitzes. Tannehill has a QBR of 47 when getting blitzed this season and we both know what Bowles is going to do. Revis shuts down his man on the outside and Tannehill will see his go-to-guy Landry being very well covered by Skrine in the slot. Laurenzo Mauldin is back and he is without a doubt the best pass-rushing LB on the team even as a rookie. He collected 1 sack and 1 hurry in 11 snaps and was beasting in training camp. Tannehill is going to have a very tough game.
 
I also like the fact that the Jets have shown a great team chemistry and Bowles and the coaching staff has been preparing for the London game since March. They even hired a sleep therapist lol. The Dolphins aren’t showing positive vibes and I dont believe Philbin is the best coach from a motivational standpoint right now.
 
I like your lean on the under because I believe this game has a shot to come out as a beating in favor of the Jets, depending on the injuries on both sides.
 

Atlanta Falcons -6 -109

The Falcons are on a roll, their OL is playing lights out and they won’t stop here in their dome as the Panthers are going for 4-0 as well. On the Texans defense, aside from Watt no one looked good in pass rushing. The Bucs blew a lot of opportunities, should have won that game. Texans coming off a win and have Colts on a short week. Teams didn’t do well in that spot in the past. Even though you don’t necessarily see it in the numbers, Dan Quinn has transformed this defense into a very solid one. Very rarely rushing more than the front four so dropping the rest into tight zone coverage to force opposing QBs to beat them deep. The Falcons defense on 10yd+ throws: 9/27 33% against Eli Manning, Sam Bradford and Brandon Weeden. Ryan Mallett on 10+ throws: 19/44 43%. Dan Quinn also held replacement level QBs to 10 PPG during the last two years (counting CK7 in). Falcons should win this one comfortably.

New York Giants +5.5 -110

Bills off a huge division win and Giants on 10 days rest. Tom Coughlin is 6-0 ATS as a underdog on more than 9 days rest. This Giants team is going to be well prepared and Tyrod Tailor is missing two weapons in Watkins and McCoy. Giants are super thin and weak at safety but their both CBs should win the battle against Tyrod and his receivers here. I see a close game being decided in the fourth quarter with the Giants coming close to win this one.

Cincinnati Bengals -4 -105

Best overall team IMO. Sean Smith had a few days of practice and the Chiefs will suffer from the Gaines injury. Bengals are like the Cowboys from 2014, they are going to score their 21-35 points in every game and I don’t trust Alex Smith on the road to compete here. Bengals by 14.

St. Louis Rams +7 -117

When the Rams visited the Cardinals last season, Palmer was held to 10 points through three quarters and the Rams were leading 14-10 with Austin Davis as their QB before they totally collapsed by throwing 3 INT in the last quarter. In the second game the Rams were in the worst spot ever after two consecutive shutout wins, losing 6-12 on TNF. The Rams should be 2-1 at this point and a lot of metrics look much better if Kendricks had caught that perfectly thrown 45-yd pass by Foles which probably would have led to a TD. The Cardinals played a cupcake schedule, probably the three worst defenses in the league. This is a top-3 defense with the best DL in the league. This is the first time the Cards OL will get exposed and Palmer and his offense will have a hard time scoring while the Rams should be able to score enough with help by their defense to have a shot at winning this game straight up. Gonna play a few bucks on the Rams ML.

MNF: Seattle Seahawks -9.5 -108

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