Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans Under 41 -107
This is a game I would play the under every time again no matter whether I hit it the first time or not. This game is set up to go under 40 points and I’ve got several reasons to explain:
Both teams have excellent defenses and furthermore are very good at defending third downs and red zone attempts
The Texans’ offensive line has been above average in a weak pass-rushing division. They had a very soft schedule. Brian Hoyer had a good pass protection last season and wasn’t really effective. This matchup against the Chiefs is completely different- he will see major pressure and will throw into good coverage. The Chiefs will force a few sacks and three and outs.
The Chiefs have a terrible and reshuffled offensive line. This is a nightmare matchup for the Chiefs. Jadeveon Clowney will line up on Sunday and get at least a limited snap count. From what I’ve heard, the Texans offensive linemen weren’t able to block Clowney and Watt at training – so why should the Chiefs be able to do that? Eric Fisher is listed as RT on the depth chart, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif next to him at RG. Eric Fisher has been a bust in the NFL so far. In his first year he played RT, giving up 47 total pressures and 6 penalties. Last year he played LT and gave up 42 pressures along with 9 penalties. This time RT again and has a 6th round pick from 2014 next to him who has seen ZERO NFL snaps thus far and who looked horrible in the pre-season. These two guys will try to block JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus – have fun my friends! On the other side it’s Donald Stephenson who played 31 snaps last season and rookie Ben Grubbs blocking against Jared Crick and a healthy Jadeveon Clowney flying from the edge. Have fun my friends! And in the middle it’s rookie Mitch Morse against Vince Wilfork.
Both teams should show us a conservative gameplan, because both offensive lines will get dominated by the opposite front seven and both QBs are going to throw into good coverage. That means we are likely going to see a lot of running plays which eats the time. But I also expect both teams to not be highly successful on the ground, because Alfred Blue isn’t good and both teams have an improved run defense. The Chiefs have a TNF game against the Broncos on deck, so they won’t show their two aces and rather try to sneak out a stinker instead of trying to rape the playbook. The Texans are just limited on offense and will rather try to not turn the ball over instead of seeking for throws downfield. Many running plays, time ticking, many three and outs and more FGs than TDs on successful drives – I can hardly see any team scoring 20+ here on Sunday.