2016 NFL Week 3

Patriots PK -105 (1u)

Don’t give BB points at home! Since week 4 of 2001, the Pats are 11-1 ATS as home dogs, winning more than a TD on avg. Sure it was Tom Brady, but there are 21 other players and the coaching staff on the field. Bill O’Brien is 1-4 SUATS in regular season prime time games. The lookahead line to this game was Pats -8 with Brady and -3.5 with Garoppolo. The line opened at Texans -1.5. Is Brissett a 5pt drop-off from Garoppolo?

The Texans had 19 qualifying offensive drives (excluding kneel downs) in their first two HOME games. The result was 2 TDs, 5 FGs and 12 punts/turnovers. Their drive success rate of 60.4% (FO) ranks 31st in the league, only LA was worse. They have the 30th-best offense by DVOA. I definitely believe that NE have a better defense than KC and CHI and they are at home.

The most reasons on Texans are Jacoby Brissett. He was with the team all summer, he knows this team and gets Gronkowski back. I don’t care if it’s Brady, Garoppolo or Brissett starting, I would always take a PK with the Patriots and this coach at home vs a team that didn’t impress me at all on the offensive side of the ball. There are 22 players on the field, not just the QB who doesn’t need to have special skills in this system as Garoppolo has proven at Arizona. I wouldn’t take this Texans team today at -3 on a neutral field let’s say, in the playoffs. I see my edge with the Pats. Good luck with whatever you decide to play!

Vikings +7.5 -115 (1u)

Couldn’t believe the line, I have the Vikes slightly favored on a neutral field. No bigger play because they come off a big SNF win. Is this line an overreaction to Peterson’s injury or what is it? Fact is, this offense will be more efficient without Peterson as he is the player who handcuffed them the most in the past. Just in the first two games he ran for 1.6 yards per carry. He needs to run from under center, but this offensive scheme & personal fits much better with more shotgun looks. Now without Peterson, Norv Turner can finally get creative and doesn’t pre-determine his offense to feed his star RB with 20+ carries. Just watch them be fine this week.

Dolphins/Browns Over 41.5 -110 (1u)

I expect both teams to score here. Hue Jackson and Cody Kessler have nothing to lose whereas the Dolphins finally play a weak defense. Tannehill should move the ball easily on that defense.

Leans:

Bears +7 or better: Jason Garrett is 1-10 ATS as a home favorite of 7 or more points. Jay Cutler is 54-81 ATS, Brian Hoyer is 16-9 ATS. I like getting extra value in a prime time matchup as I expect this game to be close. Cowboys defense looks worse than I expected them to be. Kirk Cousins threw so many horrible passes, it wasn’t funny. They should have dropped 35 on Dallas with average QB play. I will get +7 anyway, just watching the line move now.

Bears/Boys OVER: I started to absolutely love is the OVER. Both teams gonna start this game with weak defenses. Dak Prescott finally has to throw touchdowns and the Bears offense will overmatch the Boys defense on skill positions. Can see both teams scoring in the 20s easily. For the last three years, SNF games have gone over the total in 30 out of 46 games with an average total of 53.1. This total is set at 45 and was bet down to 44.5 with 84% of public support. If you see it from an NFL point of view: the only way to get attention on this game and push the ratings is by a lot of scores.

Bucs -4 / -5: Prime situational spot – Rams coming off their personal Super Bowl, travel across the country and have Arizona on deck whereas the Bucs got embarrassed and should be extra focused. The Rams are 0-4 ATS losing by 13 PPG after a game vs the Seahawks. Last season in week two they traveled to Washington and got hammered, missing tackles here and there. I made this line a bit shorter so I am willing to get a better line than -5.

Chargers -3 or better: I was shocked by this line and am still trying to find arguments against a play on the Chargers. I made this line a -3 and rather -3.5 than -2.5. And now I see consensus numbers of 64% on the Colts. SD isn’t getting any respect. I will monitor the Colts injury reports closely but at this point, they are down their first four CBs on the depth chart and there is a questionmark behind Donte Moncrief. This Chargers offense looks unstoppable even without Danny Woodhead who left the game early. They took the gears off in the 2nd half and had a red zone fumble at the end of the first half. They could have scored 50 points on this Jaguars defense which everyone on hear would rank atleast a level higher than the Colts defense. If the Colts don’t adapt their offensive scheme, I don’t see a chance for them to cover this game. If they let Luck drop deep again while trying to hit vertical isolated routes covered by Hayward, Verrett and company, they will be lost.

Jaguars up to -3: Jags are in a bounceback spot against a team that beat the two bottom feeders of any power ranking after week 2. Hurns and Robinson have a significantly better matchup than last week and the Jags defense is better than what the Ravens got to see in the first two weeks. Flacco could have thrown 4-5 picks last week. +100 for a PK is nice but I am greedy and will wait.

Bills +4 or better: I like the spot here. Bills off 10 days rest, new OC, players/owner meeting and Rex Ryan with his back against the wall. Cardinals come off a satisfying blowout win, travelling to play an early interconference east coast game with Rams on deck. While I would take Cards -4 on a neutral field in a neutral situation everytime, I smell a close game here. The Bills didn’t play with their hearts vs. the Jets, I am truly expecting a different body language this time.

Steelers @ Eagles Under 46.5 / 47: Currently 94% on the over and line already moved half a point. Could hit 47 over the weekend. I love the under here. Both teams are off big wins and I expect them to come out a little flat. There have been 54 games in which one team was off an MNF win and the other off a divisional game and the average scoring total was 40.8. The Under went 31-23 with an average closing total of exactly 40.8. This Eagles defense is a top-8 unit and will make every offenses’ life very difficult this year. Don’t expect the Steelers to light up the scoreboard at Philly. On the other side the Steelers D excels against short passes, exactly the Eagles’ bread and butter. Doug Pederson isn’t a risky OC – I expect both teams to punt a lot in this game.

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