San Diego Chargers +3.5 -110
Aside from the fact that divisional road dogs are 48-27 ATS since 2015, I love this line value. Giving Denver 4 points for HFA, this line would be -10.5 at Denver. Who wouldn’t take the Chargers offense getting 10.5 points? I like Trevor Siemian, but he has to outplay Philipp Rivers on the road and win by 4+ points. Sign me up. The Chargers have blown games, they could be 5-0. Donald Stephenson comes back, but the Chargers will cut through that line. Joey Bosa saw limited snaps but he slammed one of the best OLs in the league. He made Donald Penn look like Ereck Flowers on one speed rush. His block-shedding is awesome. When Ingram and Bosa are on the field at the same time, it’s only good for the Chargers and Bosa will see many more snaps this week. I see Chargers winning SU, but I like 3.5 points even more.
Green Bay Packers -4 -110 (1.5u)
Several angles on this one. First of all, I made this line a -6.5, so from a power ranking standpoint I would’ve played GB anyway. I can’t trust my eyes when I see people saying this line should be PK. This is a classic overreaction to Dallas beating shitty teams with a combined record of 9-16. I like Dallas as a team, but a PK is beyond ridiculous. GB are now at home since 9/19 and get a rookie at Lambeau. Here are regression angles on both sides: Dak Prescott has been playing extremely well on a cupcake schedule. Their opponents are a combined 9-16, they played NYG, CHI, WSH, SF & CIN. These are five bad teams. Yes, CIN is not a good team. They were behind 0-14 at SF & Skins could have dropped 40 on them with average QB play. They lost at home vs. NYG, a team that GB were beating 23-9 before garbage time with Rodgers throwing into defenders. Dak has yet to throw an interception. His first average game will come and I believe it’s this week at Lambeau. Each media is hyping him into the heaven, even saying that Romo should stay on the bench. He will come down to earth. Same with Zeke who should have an average game against a stout GB run defense. GB had a soft run schedule and they won’t keep their 2.0 YPC, but statistically, you have to expect Zeke to have an average game this time on the road. On the other side, Aaron Rodgers comes off an off game. He could have easily thrown several picks while having a lot of protection (which he helped with his great pocket awareness). Dallas’ pass defense is on the same level than NYG’s, I just think that their DL also won’t get any pressure on Rodgers. He should have a big game. This is the 2nd-worst pass defense Rodgers is going to face this year and on the Lions they dropped 31 points in one half before taking the gears off. The reason DAL’s defense is giving up few PPG is that they have been playing vs. Gabbert, Hoyer, Cousins & an abysmal Bengals offense. DAL run D isn’t good, Lacy is going to run on them. People say GB aren’t the same this year, but in fact they rank #7 in offensive DVOA and #8 in defensive DVOA while “looking not so good”. I locked this play in with Shields not playing. Him practicing today would be a sweet addition. I truly expect the Cowboys to come down to earth this week in a classic overreaction spot.
Seattle Seahawks -6 -105 (2u)
Another classic overreaction spot here. Falcons offense has been playing well and their offensive line is the real deal, but now they are playing at Seattle after winning at Mile High against a Seahawks team off a bye. Their win at Denver was convincing, but they played a redshirt QB rookie in his first start without an OL who is looking as the same statue that Assweiler is. With Siemian, Denver would have been able to extend more drives and Atlanta would have gone under 23 points for sure. Seattle has a fluid passing offense that is going to terrify this Falcons defense – which ranks bottom-10 in all significant metrics. Denver’s defense isn’t really good against the run and Matt Ryan only completed one pass to go over 50%. Denver got torched by big plays and the Seahawks defense have a better matchup for Atlanta’s RBs. This is probably the worst matchup the Falcons will have all season long. The Falcons offense should get held to field goals and three and outs most of the drives. I see the Seahawks rolling here, 34-16 kind of game.
Kansas City Chiefs – waiting on a better plus ML
Andy Reid is 19-3 SU & 16-6 ATS off rest > 11. 4-17 over/under. Chiefs got embarrassed on SNF. OAK off two close wins. Prime spot for KC.