Bucs ML -102
DVOA analysis and eye test favors the Bucs in every facet plus the Falcons struggle on the road in open stadiums. Huge value in the line here, expected it to be -3 Bucs.
Seahawks -1.5 -102
I was leaning Minny initially because they are an overall sound team and the Seahawks struggled on the road L2 seasons and they aren’t the same team from 2014, but I cannot ignore efficiency analysis plus the Vikes’ injuries on defense. My gut tells me the Seahawks are going to take this one and the Vikes have yet proven to beat a playoff contender.
Bills -3 -120
Give me Rex Ryan in an important home game against a mediocre offense all week long. He will have his team ready and the Texans’ offense will be shut down. Think about what happened if they didn’t face Revis in probably his worst career game and the worst defense in the league. Texans’ offense will look sloppy AT Buffalo and Tyrod Taylor is the kind of QB who can scramble off the big time pass rush. I can see a 20-9 type of game.
Jets -2.5 -107
Well, st2ee my friend – here we are. Battle of New York! I will send congrats asap if the Giants take this one, but I can’t see it. Giants can’t cover Decker & Marshall and now the Jets are finally able to mix Devin Smith into the group. The Jets are going to score a lot in this game and I expect a higher scoring game. Eli will have his problems against the Jets’ pass rush while he will also find OBJ sometimes, but they can’t run enough on the Jets to let OBJ run shorter routes. IMO the Jets are just the better team, efficiency-wise and from the eye-test. I will take the -2.5. Hoping for a nice game.
Chiefs -3 +104
The Chiefs are on a roll and they have been one of the best teams lately. IMO it doesn’t matter whether Justin Houston plays or not, because the Raiders have a strong OL. You need good coverage on D and that’s what the Chiefs have. Raiders D can’t stop the Chiefs.